Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices continue to rise ahead of Diwali? Why investors should buy on dips
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to continue rising ahead of Diwali, says Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. He shares his views and recommendations for gold investors:Gold continued to surge to new record heights crossing $4,000 per ounce in Comex markets as investors sought safety amid the US government shutdown, economic uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Investors fearful of missing out on the rally also pile into the precious metal complex sparking a “FOMO” based rally in gold. The shutdown concerns in the US, which could trigger mass federal layoffs, has also raised concerns about a drag on US growth, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Gold has jumped nearly 50% since the start of the year, supported by central bank buying, ETF inflows, a weaker dollar, and rising retail interest. The rally is particularly driven by long-term institutional buyers along with Global Central Banks rather than speculators, suggesting any pullbacks could be limited and potentially present buying opportunities. Markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end.On the physical demand front in India, Trade & Government sources have revealed that India’s imports of gold & silver prices continued to nearly double in September from August, defying record high prices, as banks & jewellers rushed to build inventories ahead of festivals & escape higher taxes on imports. Higher imports by India, the world’s second-biggest consumer of the precious metal, supported gold record run prices in India even as demand languished in top buyer China. In October as the Indian festive season begins, which is considered auspicious to buy gold, it is likely to witness strong retail demand from the world’s second largest consumer.Market sources also revealed Indian dealers quoting a premium of as high as $ 8 – 10 per oz over official domestic prices, inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies in recent weeks indicating strong physical demand. Strong buying from India continued to offset the slowdown seen in China.
Gold Price Outlook
Weekly View: Bullish Bias to persist (for 1- 2 weeks perspective)From a technical perspective, the strong rally beyond the $3,850 per oz mark continues to surprise short term speculators/traders with new highs above $ 3,950 in spot have been printed already. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing overbought conditions above 80 indicating “fatigue” but weekly momentum indicators still show room for further rally in prices which might continue in coming weeks ahead of Diwali festive season. Having said that, the broader bullish trend may challenge $4,000 – 4,150 per oz on the higher side in Oct 2025.On the other hand, technically gold is “up seven consecutive weeks in a row,” a pattern that has historically preceded short-term weakness as was evident in 1979 during the same period. Gold also continues to trade almost 21 – 23 % above its 200-day moving average” & “70 – 75” % above its 200-week moving average indicating upcoming 2 – 3 weeks could see peaks occurring in Oct. month followed by a dip towards the start of November. Finally a temporary correction or even a consolidation from current levels till Nov. remains a good opportunity to go long as current yearly boom is still smaller than those of the 1970s & 2000s, suggesting further upside over the next few Quarters is certainly possible.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
