IATA study finds sufficient sustainable aviation fuel feedstock exists to achieve net zero emissions by 2050

MUMBAI: A new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has concluded that the airline industry has access to sufficient sustainable feedstock to achieve its net-zero emissions goal by 2050. The study, however, identifies a significant bottleneck in the slow rollout of technology needed to convert these diverse feedstocks into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a challenge exacerbated by competition from other sectors for the same raw materials.The study done in partnership with Worley Consulting said that all feedstocks considered meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not lead to changes in land use.”The study also identified significant barriers in using that feedstock for SAF production, namely the slow pace of technology rollout that would enable SAF to be produced from varied sources. Currently, the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example, converting used cooking oil into SAF. There is also competition with other potential users of the same feedstock. Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised,” said IATA in a press statement issued on Tuesday.Airlines will need 500 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as outlined in the IATA Net Zero Roadmaps. This can be achieved from two main sources: Biomass, which has the potential to produce more than 300 Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. “Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades. Power-to-liquid (PtL) will be required to reach 500 Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap,” it said. In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions, said IATA. “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation. There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. Key findings from the report include that there are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050. With the right policies and investments, more than 300 Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200 Mt from e-SAF.“The main challenges are enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry. Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL (power-to-liquid), including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure which are all required as part of the PtL production method. Achieving coordinated govt policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities. Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and ASEAN identified as key drivers of global SAF output. Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals,” said IATA. “The report highlights the local and regional opportunities for SAF production to create jobs, stimulate economies and support energy security goals. Govts, energy producers, investors, and the aviation sector must work together, de-risk investment, and accelerate rollout. Policy certainty and cross-sector collaboration are essential to unlock the scale we need. The time to act is now—delays will only make the challenge harder,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist. “With this study, it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector. The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,” said Walsh.